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Iran-Israel ceasefire likely to hold as Israel needs it more than Iran - Ex-UK Diplomat

Washington, June 25 (UNI) There is a good chance that the ceasefire between Iran and Israel will hold despite recent violations, as the latter has worn out its combat potential and needs peace more than Tehran, former UK Ambassador to Syria Peter Ford told RIA Novosti.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Iran and Israel exchanged missile strikes. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that it struck Israel a few minutes before the start of the truce in response to the deaths of Iranians after Israeli strikes. Later, Israeli Army Radio reported that Israel will give a "symbolic response" to Iran's violation of the ceasefire by attacking one target outside Tehran.

"I am optimistic. The first hours were always going to be a bit messy, but [US President Donald] Trump appears to have called the Israelis to order. I believe the truce will be long-lasting for the simple reason that a wounded, worn-out Israel needs it more than Iran, and Iran will not go looking for trouble," Ford said when asked how viable the ceasefire is given its violations.

He also said that the "episode" with "symbolic" retaliatory strikes appears to be over, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu grateful to Trump for "giving him cover to call off his attack on Tehran."

"Every day that passed, Israel was getting weaker. Another round would only show more of Israel's weakness in the face of Iran's missiles," the diplomat said.

At the same time, the former ambassador noted the involvement of Trump in the conflict, who, as he said, "delivered a master class in crisis management."

"First he let the war go on long enough for Israel to start feeling the strain. Then he calculatingly made the crisis worse by joining the war. This opened the way for him to orchestrate with Iran a performative strike, to which Iran could respond with a performative reprisal. This in turn opened the way for Trump to impose peace," Ford continued, adding that the reality was that the Israeli prime minister "begged" the US leader to get the hostilities to end because Israel itself was "exhausted and vulnerable."

Now when the ceasefire is in place, the US leader, having done "the necessary in restraining Israel," can "walk away" from Israeli politics and let the country's politicians decide the prime minister's future, he added.

"Netanyahu has failed in all his stated objectives: Iran still has a nuclear capacity, its missiles, and its regional allies. Any regime change will be in Jerusalem, not Tehran. Netanyahu's reckless gamble of attacking Iran has backfired big time," the former ambassador said.

The situation in the Middle East escalated on June 13, when Israel launched a large-scale operation against Iran, accusing it of implementing a secret military nuclear program. Tehran retaliated by launching Operation True Promise III, hitting military targets inside Israel. On June 22, the United States struck three Iranian nuclear sites in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, joining Israel's campaign against Iran. US President Donald Trump said after the attack that Tehran "must now agree to end this war" or face far more serious consequences.

On Monday, Iran launched a missile strike on the US's Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar in response to the US attack. The strike resulted in zero casualties, as all the missiles apart from one were intercepted. Trump said late on Monday that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire. On Tuesday, Trump said that the ceasefire between Iran and Israel was now in effect.

Iran denies the military dimension of its nuclear program. The IAEA has not seen concrete evidence that Iran has an active nuclear weapons program, Director General Rafael Grossi said on June 18.

UNI SPUTNIK GNK